The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report forecasts Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth to reach 4.2% in 2025, surpassing the global average of 3.3%. This improved trajectory, expected to continue into 2026, reflects easing weather shocks and supply constraints. Inflation is projected to decline faster in 2025, though it will remain higher than earlier forecasts for 2026.
Despite this optimistic forecast, growth in the region remains subdued and uneven, hindered by natural disasters, conflicts, and limited access to financing. External risks, such as a strong US dollar and tighter global financial conditions, pose challenges, particularly for countries already burdened with excessive debt and constrained fiscal capacity.
The IMF projects nine of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 to be in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), led by South Sudan with 27% growth, rebounding from last year’s 26% contraction caused by pipeline disruptions. Other standout SSA economies include Senegal (9.3%), Uganda (7.5%), and Niger (7.3%), followed by Zambia, Benin, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Côte d’Ivoire, all projected to grow by roughly 6.5%. In contrast, two of the region’s largest economies, South Africa and Nigeria, are expected to grow modestly at 1.5% and 3.2%, respectively, with Nigeria’s outlook aligning with other oil-exporting nations. Equatorial Guinea, projected to contract by 4.8%, will be the only African economy to shrink in 2025.
The varying growth rates highlight the critical need for resource-dependent countries to diversify their economies. Investments in infrastructure, education, and private-sector development are essential to building resilience against external shocks and volatile commodity prices. For instance, Rwanda’s focus on technology-enabled services has helped foster steady growth and economic transformation. Additionally, reducing external vulnerabilities and boosting resilience will require greater regional cooperation through initiatives like the AfCFTA, which aims to increase intra-African trade and create a unified market.
Source: IMF & Semafor
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