Sub-Saharan Africa is set to experience a transformative leap in renewable energy, with nearly 90 GW of new capacity forecasted from 2024 to 2030, more than doubling the region’s current capacity. South Africa leads the charge, contributing 40% of the new capacity, while Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Angola make significant strides in solar PV and hydropower expansions. Key projects like Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam and Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere Hydropower Station will be instrumental, with hydropower remaining central in countries like Angola and Tanzania, and solar PV dominating in Nigeria and Kenya.
Corporate investment in renewables is rising, with businesses in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa reducing reliance on diesel and addressing grid challenges through solar and wind projects. Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency is deploying off-grid solar solutions, while South Africa’s lowered thresholds for embedded generation have spurred private sector investments. These efforts complement utility-scale projects and distributed solar PV installations, driving electrification across underserved areas.
However, challenges such as policy inconsistencies, grid reliability issues, and delays in project implementation hinder progress. High offtaker risks and payment delays to independent power producers undermine investor confidence. Clear policies, timely regulations, and innovative financing mechanisms could significantly boost growth, supported by liberalization efforts in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa that encourage partnerships between corporations and independent producers.
While current forecasts fall short of sub-Saharan Africa’s ambitious renewable energy targets, accelerated growth scenarios—fueled by infrastructure investments and market liberalization—could surpass them. Solar PV and wind are expected to account for 80% of the new capacity, with distributed and large-scale projects in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa driving the transition. This highlights the region’s potential as a critical player in the global renewable energy shift.
Source: IEA
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